Financial Matters

Tips and news from the financial experts at Attentive Investment Managers.
Jan
13

2019 Q4 Newsletter

q4

Mike and I recently reflected on the past decade of the markets, and now that the New Year has come and gone, we can set our sites ahead for the future. The week of January 6th will be the first full week of trading after our holiday hangover. Market sentiment is a mixed bag and it appears that everyone has a wait and see attitude – this is a juxtaposition of where we were this time last year.

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Oct
05

2017 3rd Quarter Report

third-quarter

The last few years of a bull market are always a bit of a mystery to professional investors; the market rises faster than it did in the early, cautious years when nobody believed there WAS a bull market, even though there appear to be fewer fundamental or economic reasons for it. The current bull market churns on, even if nobody can explain it, and people who bail out in anticipation of a downturn do so at the risk of missing out on an untold number of months or years of (still somewhat inexplicable) gains. As nice as the returns have been domestically, international stocks this year have been even kinder to investment portfolios.

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Jul
06

Quarterly Newsletter: 2017 Second Quarter Report

The U.S. stock market has more than tripled in value during the runup that started in March 2009, and the most recent quarter somehow managed to accelerate the upward trend. We have just experienced the third-best first half, in terms of U.S. market returns, of the 2000s. By any measure, this represents a strong first half of the year, driven by the S&P 500 tech sector, biotech firms and information technology companies generally. What is interesting is that investors appear to be flooding into these business categories because they are the ones most likely to grow their sales even if the economic environment were to turn sour—which suggests a growing bedrock of pessimism about future economic growth among seasoned investors. Is that justified? Economic growth was admittedly meager in the first quarter—U.S. GDP grew just 1.4% from the beginning of January to the end of March, a figure that was actually revised upwards from initial estimates of 0.7%. That represents a slowdown from ...
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Mar
21

Clear Long-Term

Clear Long-Term

The Federal Reserve has once again raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but is still maintaining their placid stance toward economic policy. This allowed equities last week to end a tumultuous week with a slight uptick. The expectation is that the Fed is going to continue to raise rates very slowly.

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Apr
13

2016 First Quarter Report: The Bear That Wasn’t

2016 First Quarter Report: The Bear That Wasn’t
The first quarter of the new year has brought us small positive returns in many of the U.S. market indices, which means that investors survived—for now, at least—the worst start to a calendar year ever for the U.S. stock market. The easy call at the beginning of the year would have been to bail out when the markets were declining and sit out the widely-predicted start of a painful, protracted bear market. Some analysts were talking openly about another 2008-9 drop in share prices. But 10% market declines are simply a part of the market's normal turbulence, and anyone who spooks as soon as they see a month of bearish sentiment is likely to miss out on the subsequent gains. Since hitting their 2016 lows on February 11, both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite have gained roughly 13% in value. That doesn't guarantee that there will be gains going forward, however. The Market Watch website reports that half of the S&P 500 sectors are reporting declin...
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Jan
11

2015 Year End Report:

2015 Year End Report:
​In the past year, we experienced many things—a prelude to a Presidential election, a renewal of terrorist concerns,—but in the investment markets, we will look back and yawn. Despite some entertaining ups and downs, particularly in the third quarter of the year, the markets ended pretty much where they began, eking out small gains and losses pretty much across the board. The final three months of the year provided investors with gains that were tantalizingly close to wiping out the losses of the previous three quarters. What's going to happen in 2016? Of course, nobody knows with any degree of certainty. But many professional investors are approaching the new year with an unusual degree of caution. By most metrics, U. S. stocks are slightly pricier than their historical averages. That doesn't mean they can't get more so, but it seems unlikely that people will pay a lot more for a dollar of earnings in the coming year than they will today. Meanwhile, economic growth is moderate at best...
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Sep
08

Exit or Seek Opportunity

Exit or Seek Opportunity
Recent turmoil in financial markets, rising pessimism about Chinese and emerging markets growth and a renewed slump in oil prices have fueled fears that the global economic recovery is faltering. While the world economy does face several challenges, we remain convinced that the United States and Europe are on an upward growth trajectory. China is a wildcard, but while growth is slowing there, it should stabilize. We do not foresee current equity market weakness morphing into a bear market. Bear markets typically occur against a backdrop of recessions that produce significant declines in corporate earnings. Earnings have wavered this year, but we believe this is mainly due to a profit crunch in the energy sector and the sharp rise in the U.S. dollar. The negative impact of both of these factors should fade in the coming quarters, allowing earnings to improve. Additionally, monetary policy should stay accommodative even when the Fed starts raising rates. If the Fed were only focused on t...
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Due to renewed State orders for shelter-in-place we will be modifying our office operations. We will be suspending services at our physical office for the public. However, we are available to you via web meeting (zoom), email and telephone (Phone lines have been forwarded to our personal cell phones) during regular business hours. We will be able to fully service all your investment needs with no interruption.

You may drop contribution checks at our office through the mail slot or they may be mailed directly to TD Ameritrade (address listed below). Please be sure to notate your account number on the check.

TD Ameritrade
PO BOX 650567
Dallas, TX 75265-0567

Rest assured that we will continue to monitor your investments and market conditions on an ongoing basis with no interruption. Should you have any questions or concerns please feel free to contact us.

We will navigate this crisis as best we can, coming together and making shared sacrifices. We hope that we can help to slow down the effect of this virus together and solve this swiftly. We also wish everyone well and would like to extend our gratitude for your patience during these trying times. Continue to watch for updates from us.